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Useful Decision Analysis Tools

Presenter: Kurt Stuke, Trainer, Consultant, Contoocook, NH, USA

Keywords: Decision Matrix, Decision Tree, Decision Analysis

Industry: Environmental Services, Manufacturing, Service

Level: Basic


ABSTRACT

The point of our practice as Lean and Quality practitioners is often reducible to a decision. There may be one over-arching choice or perhaps many incremental decisions, but making good decisions can make or break our efforts. While we are trained very well in the tools of Lean and Process Improvement, the exploration of a structured approach to decision analysis (DA) is not as common. The value of our outputs mandates at least a cursory understanding of DA, such that, the decision or decisions themselves are as meaningful as the data upon which the decisions rest!

The learning objective for this presentation is to address the aforementioned gap in Lean training. The session is designed to introduce and help the attendees understand the value of a structured approach to DA. After surveying the subject and a brief history of the discipline, attendees will break into small groups and explore the following DA tools through structured in-session exercises:

1. Decision Matrix

2. Kepner Tregoe Decision Matrix

3. Decision Trees

4. Sensitivity Analysis

In previous seminars, the context of opening a small cafe and making a decision on cheese has been utilized. Within this approach, 3 - 5 kinds of cheese are provided for each team (along with crackers and juice - not wine!). The participants are offered instruction in each tool and then asked to make a decision using the tool provided. The optimal approach is to start with the simplest tool and to move to the more complex.

Through the application of the tools to the case-studies, the concept of bias and several well-known biases will also be introduced. As Lean Six Sigma practitioners, the value of understanding bias to effective decision-making is vital.

Custom Excel-based templates and web-based interaction will be provided and be offered as takeaways from the session.


Call for Proposals

Proposal Submission Deadline:
October 11, 2019

Acceptance notification date:
November 11, 2019

Early Registration Deadline:
February 11, 2020

Please make sure to review and prepare the material needed before you start the on-line Proposal Submission Form. Click here to see Proposal Submission Guidelines.

Who May Submit: This online form may be used by a principal speaker, co-speaker, contact person, or a committee member submitting on behalf of a speaker.

Multiple Proposals: You may submit multiple proposals.

Conference Registration Fee:
The conference registration fee is waived for the principal speaker of accepted proposals. Speakers are responsible for their travel expenses and arrangements. Co-speakers will receive a 30% discount for the conference that they are presenting at.

Length of Presentations: Technical sessions are typically 35 minutes. There will be a limited number of "double" sessions, 70 minutes, at the end of each day.

You will need the following to submit a proposal

Proposal Title: Maximum 80 characters including spaces. 

Keywords:Please include three keywords with a maximum of 100 characters, including spaces. 

Industry Sector: Please select the most relevant Industry sector for the proposal from a list.

Abstract: The Abstract should be 1,500 to 5,000 characters (note that it is Characters, NOT words), including spaces.

Biography: The Biography must be 1,500 to 5,000 characters, including spaces.

Public Profile: LinkedIn or Public Profile for link for the Principal Speaker: 

Speaker's Photo (optional)

Sample Video (optional)

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